Happy new year! Though the last few weeks have been relatively quiet in figure skating news, this week, social media is blowing up with coverage. AND the reality that this event starts *NEXT WEEK* (a.k.a. the panic has started to set in). This will be an interesting nationals, with some major players out with injuries (Rippon, Edmunds, Scimeca Knieirm) and all eyes looking towards the 2018 season. Much of what we see this year is skaters setting themselves up for the Olympic year by rehabbing injuries, trying out new elements and jockeying for position. More important than what happens in Kansas City this week is what happens at Worlds this year or what I like to call "White Knuckling Olympic Spots". Here is a look at the storylines I will be keeping my eye on in Kansas City: 1. Which pair can be the most consistent? The pairs field is so wide open that you may as well draw names to pick a winner. While reigning champions Tarah Kayne/Danny O'Shea have the best programs of this event IMO, Tarah has been dealing with a knee injury and not feeling her best. When they won their first title last year, it was their consistency in the side-by-side jumps that won them the title and they haven't been able to find that yet this season. Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier have been the most consistent team so far, achieving a third and fourth place in the Grand Prix. They're coming off a huge injury to Denney, so I give them credit for doing as well as they have, but I have to say I find their programs forgettable. Possibly my favorite U.S. pair team is Marissa Castelli/Mervin Tran, who have incredible potential as a team, but struggle with the consistency of their elements. I am also excited for the Nationals debut of Ashley Cain/Tim LeDuc. 2. Which U.S. lady is most motivated for a comeback? Let's be real, the U.S. ladies were an absolute disaster this fall. Despite medals from Ashley Wagner, Mariah Bell and Courtney Hicks, the inconsistency of the U.S. ladies ran rampant in the Grand Prix. For the fifth year in a row, it will be the Ashley v. Gracie storyline playing out for the top two. While Ashley Wagner has had a somewhat typical for her up-and-down fall season, Gracie Gold has been scoring far below even her worst of performances from her senior career. While both are promising a comeback, it's an entirely other thing to put it on the ice. Regardless of whether you're Team Ashley or Team Gracie, you're gonna want BOTH of them to skate well and get on that World team. In my opinion, we need to send World- level experienced skaters who have to have any hope of getting three spots for South Korea. With Edmunds out, that means I'm also looking for a big performance out of Mirai Nagasu in Kansas City. While I'm not sure how the uncertainty of the triple axel will effect her, she has great programs and I'm hoping she peaks here. I will also have my eye on Mariah Bell, Karen Chen, Angela Wang and Caroline Zhang as skaters who can make a statement here. In the next post, I'll preview the men and dance, and follow up with a predictions/fantasy picks post early next week. I'm trying to keep these short and sweet : )
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I haven't caught up yet on all the action from the GPF ( I know.) but hopefully will soon enough. I haven't watched the ladies or mens free skates (maybe that's a good thing) but there were certainly lots of surprises from France. I will hopefully catch up before all the big Nationals coming up! Second half of the season, here we come!
USFSA: I had a much stronger showing here, placing 40T for the event with 9/12 picks correct. The smaller field helps : ) Luckily, this has boosted me back up to 47T overall. Let's keep climbing upwards, shall we?
TSL: Finsihed #74 with1, 053 points. Team Cziney came in second and I got 2 head-to-heads correct, along with the overall medal count. upset pick and eight podium predicitons. YAY! These week, the picks were set up by qualifying order. I find that this actually made choosing my team easier, but we shall see how it all shakes out. Happy watching!
Speaking of GPF fields that are meh this season, pairs probably tops the list here. With so many big names out of the series, the gold will likely go entirely uncontested. The only points of interest for me are watching the progress of the new Chinese pair teams and how Seguin/Bilodeau will do with their SBS jumps here after almost missing the Final.
Meagan Duhamel/Eric Radford should easily win here after Savchenko/Massot withdrew with an injury. They had a messy free skate at NHK, so I am sure they will be looking to skate better here. Though they tend to skate better when they compete against better teams, it would take a near disaster for them to not win the gold here. Their numbers are just too high. As a new team this season, Xiaoyu Yu/Hao Zhang actually showed the most consistency of any team at this event. Their only real mistake was an uncharacteristic fall from Zhang on a side-by-side jump. With the Germans out of the Final, I actually think they have the best twist and throws of the field, in terms of quality. If they can keep up the consistency, they will make the podium here. I pick them for silver. While I find their program choices to be entirely unmemorable. Evgenia Tarasova/Vladmir Morosov have upped the technical ante this season with their quad twist. (AND Their 3T is just gorgeous). One 4Tw attempt went awry, and the other was pretty good. They'll need a good attempt here for the bronze medal. The only reason I am not picking Seguin/Bilodeau for the podium here is because of the harder (and riskier) side by side jumps that they are trying this year. They just haven't been consistent. I think they made a good choice in going back to last year's short program and that they deserve better PCS than the Russians, but they need to be clean for third. It's definitely not out of the question for them, however. I love Peng/Jin's short program this year, and they're my pick for fifth because of their chemistry as a team. Zabiiako/Enbert have a nice opportunity to compete here, but they don't quite have the quality of the rest of the field in my opinon. I feel very lukewarm about the ladies field this year if I am being real with you. With big names like Asada, Gold and Wagner out, I am very meh about half of these skaters. Nevertheless, the competion has a few interesting storylines to watch---Can Anna dethrone Evgenia? Can Satoko reestablish herself as a contender?
Although my personal preference would be for Anna to win here ( I can't believe I have lived to see this day), but the numbers just aren't there. Evgenia's TES averages 2-4 points higher in each segment of the competition, and her PCS average over a point better in each. I think it would take mistakes from the World Champ to put Anna on the top of the podium. Though I would love to see that, I think Evgenia Medvedeva will defend her title here. Anna Pogorilaya is having one hell of a start to her season. I find her program choices to be stronger than Evgenia's and she has brought consistency to her jumps this year. With two wins on the Grand Prix and four solid skates, she certainly isn't out of the running for the gold. She can really keep her name in the mix for the World title if she can skate consistently here and keep her momentum going. It will be an interestng battle for bronze between Elena and Satoko Miyahara. Both have had less luck with their jumps this season than in the past, but Elena Radionova looked stronger at her last event and she's my pick for the bronze because of it. I think Satoko's skating quality is so underappreciated, but that some jump calls will be the reason she finishes fourth. Maria Sotskova vs. Kaetlyn Osmund is an intriguing matchup as well. I think Kaetlyn is a better performer, but the consistency of Sotskova's jumps will be what the Russian rookie from finishing #notlast. UGH, it was a rough week, people. 8/12 picks correct, and one of my dance picks withdrew so I lost a TON of points. I finished 138T for the event (which is only the third worst of the GP) but it dropped me to 56th overall. YUCK. I will have to do better homework for the GPF. That event is *a bit* easier to pick with only six entries per discipline.
In TSL, I actually didn't do too terribly- #74 with 865 points. My celebrity pick was second, I got three head to head matchups, one quad count, the upset pick and 7 placements. As highly anticipated, Yuzuru Hanyu came through on home ice this week. Though he wasn't perfect, this was certainly an improvement from Skate Candada. I actually think it's good he's starting his season off even slower than normal this year, as maybe it will allow him to peak at Worlds this year instead of the GPF. Men's is probably the field I am most looking forward to at the Final, and my money will be on Yuzu.
Nathan Chen will be headed to the Grand Prix Final in his debut season, quads in tow. Marina Zueva has done good work for his components, but it was interesting to see Raf with him here at NHK. What the U.S. has been looking for for a long time now is a man with multiple quads *and* artistry and Nathan seems to be the bright light in that respect. He's got work to do, but I wouldn't call him just a jumper either. AND THANK THE LORD that Arizona short program costume was changed; this one is much better. I will be very interested* to see his placement at the Final, relative to the Javi/Patricks/Yuzu/Shoma situation as well as to teammate Adam Rippon. (More on that below). It was a cool moment for Keiji Tanaka to grab the bronze on home ice here. There's something about him that makes me smile haha. Maybe he'll run at that third men's World spot at Japanese nationals? That competition is *so* interesting in singles. Unfortunatey, Alexi Bychenko and Jason Brown couldn't have solid enough skates to qulaify for the Final. Both will be facing tough competition at their respective National championships, with more talent than Worlds spots available. This isn't the way they would've wanted to enter their Nationals, and this is especially tough for Jason Brown, who will have to watch two teammates compete in France. (HUGE CONGRATS TO ADAM RIPPON THOUGH!!!) The U.S. men's event is probably going to kill me this year. That's it for the Grand Prix! It flew as usual, but December still brings us the Grand Prix Final, as well as the hugely packed fields at the Russian and Japanese National Championships. Happy Holidays! Congrats to Anna Pogorilaya for continuing to pleasantly surprise this season, with another consistent set of skates in Japan. I am seriously amazed at the transformation she's made to her career in such a short time. The turnaround has been so quick that her skating feels entirely new and fresh to me, and I think her program choices have been a huge asset this year. If I'm being totally honest, I hope she challenges Medvedeva at the Final for the gold.
When I saw the short program results and found out Satoko Miyahara fell, I thought I was in the twilight zone. That's not really like her, but she rallied for the rest of the program. Her jumps looked weaker in the free than we've seen from her in quite sometime, which could present problems for her internationally as the season continues. I do love her skating and her long program this year, and typically her consistency incredible. Honestly, I hope she can spoil a potential Russian sweep in France. Maria Sotskova must be channeling the first year Baby Russian good luck, as she picked up her second GP medal. I partially think she benefited from weaker fields in France, but either way she's headed to her first Grand Prix Final. Her ability to stand up jumps has kept her in the top of her fields, but I can't say I'm a fan of her skating at this point. The Final will be good experience for her as she preps for the tough field at Russian nationals to qualify for the World team. Though she can be technically inconsistent, I am a huge fan of Wakaba Higuchi's overally skating. She has a chance to run at the third Japanese Worlds spot this season and I would love to see her make it. It was great to see Mirai Nagasu pick herself up after Skate Canada and get some more solid skates under her belt before Nationals. I think for Nagasu, the mission in Japan was to just gain confidence and I hope that mission was accomplished in her mind before Kansas City. Duhamel/Radford picked up their second win of the season at NHK, to the surprise of no one. If anything was shocking, it was the lift issue they had at the end of their free skate, but their little mistakes didn't matter much in this field. They will want to be at their best at the Final if Savchenko/Massot are healthy enough to compete and challenge them. I am still not a fan of their program choices this year, but they will be favored to win at the Final.
I was happy to see Peng/Jin make the Final. Their short program is a really great choice for them and after all the switcheroo drama, I am just glad they look happy and are skating well. Peng's side by side jump inconsistencies showed up again at this event, but they did have to skate back-to-back. They will face their former partners and a tough field at the Final. They'll need cleaner programs to make an impact on the podium there, but the international experience should be a boost to their first season together. I like Wang/Wang's short program and this bronze medal is a huge step forward for them. In deeper fields, they wouldn't be medal contenders, but they took advantage of a medal opportunity here. Good for them! It was nice to see Kayne/O'Shea with a technically solid free skate here. Consistency has always been a strength of their skating and I hope that skate brings them some confidence as they rest and reset to defend their national title in January. Even without Scimeca/Knierim, they'll face a challenge with the consistency of Denney/Frazier. |
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