As we head towards a new season, I take a look at each discipline's major players in the Grand Prix Series and who is in the running for the six coveted spots at the Grand Prix Final.
Ice Dance (See all assignments here) Last season, we saw a few exciting shakeups, with Americans Maia and Alex Shubutani unseating compatriots Madison Chock/Evan Bates and Canadians Kaitlyn Weaver/Poje as the runner ups to the new king and queen of ice dance, Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron. The aforementioned French team made quite a statement themselves, coming back from an injury and a missed Grand Prix season to decisively take their second consecutive World title. Things will not slow down in 2016-17, as the much talked about return of two-time Olympic medallists Tessa Virtue/Scott Moir will finally commence. While their return to the top of the field is not guaranteed by any means, their skating quality is not to be messed with. Did I mention they now train with Papadakis/Cizeron? And they will face off at NHK? Hold on to your seats, people! The addition of Virtue/Moir to an already packed-at-the-top dance field means one of the staple teams of international ice dance of the last few years will not make it back to the Final. So who's in the running? Shibutani/Shibutani should win their home event and have great medal chances at Cup of China against Weaver/Poje. I'd expect them to get back to the Final. Similarly, Papadakis/Cizeron should win Trophee de France and come in 1-2 at NHK to make a return to the Final. Chock/Bates have the misfortune of competing two weeks in a row early on in the series, at Skate Canada and Rostelecom, but they have a decent shot at the Final. They will have to be on their game in Canada, against Virtue/Moir and Anna Cappellin/Luca Lanotte. Rostelecom gets slightly easier with Weaver/Poje as their main contenders. Speaking of Canada's now-seemingly number two team, I'd bet on Weaver/Poje to keep up their golden streak on the GP series and make it back to the Final . They should finish 1-2 at Rostelecom and Cup of China, against Americans Chock/Bates and the Shibuatnis, respectively. So then we come back to Virtue/Moir.... it's hard to predict how the comeback will play out, but for now I'll assume they'll still be at a high enough level to make it to the GPF, likely winning Skate Canada and finishing 1-2 at NHK. The two teams left in contention made it to the GPF last year- Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue from the U.S. and Italians Capellini/Lanotte, And honestly, this one just comes down to the math. The Italians have two tough assignments at Skate Canada and NHK and realistically winning 2 bronze medals won't be enough. Hubbell/Donahue have easier fields (Skate America and Trophee de France) and they would be my pick for the sixth and final Final team. Dance is certainly going to be interesting this year! I'll be back in a bit with pairs!
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As we head towards a new season, I take a look at each discipline's major players in the Grand Prix Series and who is in the running for the six coveted spots at the Grand Prix Final.
Ladies (See All Assignments here) The top two American ladies- Ashley Wagner and Gracie Gold- have a great shot to make the Final again this year. Neither one have uncontested events by any means, but two medals and a GPF spot are well within their grasp. They face off against each other at Skate America (#drama), along with Mao Asada and a few who could play spoilers (Lipnitskaya, Sakhanovich). Gracie then competes at Trophee de France against Asada and reigning World champ Evgenia Medvedeva. Ashley’s second assignment is at Cup of China against Elena Radionova and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. Similarly, Japan’s top two ladies should make it to the Final. Satoko Miyahara's first assignment is Skate Canada, against Medvedeva and Tuktamysheva, but at NHK Trophy she should be easily in her element against Anna Pogorilaya and a weaker field after that. Mao Asada will face Gold twice, Wagner, and Medvedeva, but if she can pull out that triple axel and a least one win, she’ll have enough points. Now for those last two spots, I have no doubt it will be Russian women, but which ones? I feel I have huge question marks for each one of them. Can Evgenia Medvedeva prove history wrong and continue her dominance? Can Elena Radionova bounce back from a tough year? Can Anna Pogorilaya capitalize on her surprise World bronze? Can Yulia Lipnitskaya continue her climb back to the top after a building block year last year? If I had to pick right now, I’d bank on the fight of Radionova and the technical firepower of Evgenia Medvedeva, but Russian women historically have struggled to stay on top season after season. (Lipnitskaya, Tuktamysheva, Radionova all followed fabulous seasons with inconsistent or disastrous ones). Who will be the new Russian darling this year? Every year, it seems there are favorites who underperform and a newbie who storms to the top. WHO WILL IT BE THIS YEAR? It's now late July, and many skaters have been announcing their music and competing their new programs at shows or smaller competitions. (*For a great compilation of sneak peeks, check out Rocker by Jackie Wong*) And all the new music just has me surprisingly looking forward for to the late night/early morning hours of watching the Grand Prix live for six weeks straight : ) While we wait for October to get here, I'll do a brief overview of each discipline's Grand Prix roster.
Men (See all assignments here) It seems to be that most of the spots in the men’s event at the Final should be fairly predictable, with Hanyu, Fernandez, and Chan all having an easy opportunity to qualify. Yuzuru Hanyu and Patrick Chan will face off at Skate Canada for the second year in a row, with Chan skating again at Cup of China with Boyang Jin as his closest competitor; Hanyu will finish the series at NHK in a fairly uncontested field. Javier Fernandez has the misfortune of competing twice in a row, at Rostelecom and Trophee de France, but again, should easily place 1-2 if he’s skating anywhere near his best. Japan’s Shoma Uno could realistically get his first senior GP win at Skate America, with jumper Boyang Jin and the inconsistent Denis Ten in his field. Against Fernandez at Rostelecom, he should still grab a medal to make it back to the Final. Though he’s not an artist, Boyang Jin’s quads would get him to the Final, opening his season at Skate America and then and then facing Patrick Chan his home event. After that, god, your guess is as good as mine! Denis Ten certainly could do it, but it would require four clean(ish) performances to do it, and he wasn’t able to be even slightly consistent last year, dealing with injury. Takahito Mura and Mikhail Kolyada are also on my radar for that sixth spot if Ten can’t work his magic. I expect consistent performances out of the top American men (Brown, Rippon, Aaron) but I am not sure any of them have the right combination of PCS and TES to compete internationally at a top-six level for the Final. Junior World Champ Nathan Chen will get his first chance at the senior Grand Prix with two events and quads to boot, but he is coming back from a very serious hip surgery. I will be very interested to see how his quads are as he recovers and especially how the international judges will score him. As always, I expect to see the men pushing the boundaries of technical elements this season, which always leads to exciting- and inconsistent- skates throughout the series. I'll be back with a ladies overview next! It’s like Christmas morning when the Grand Prix assignments are announced- it gives us fans *much* to talk about, just at the time when the off season is starting to feel long. The announcement finally makes it feel like a new year, and I know I’m not the only one who was repeatedly refreshing the ISU page for the postings to go up : ) I will discuss each discipline in a later post, but here are my overall impressions:
Notably Missing: Voloshozhar/Trankov had already announced they wouldn’t do the Grand Prix, so this wasn’t surprising, but I still wonder at the decision. Having missed some events last season and taking a year off, I’m not sure that the pre-Olympic year is really the year to just show up at Europeans. They certainly have world-class clout, but I fear they’ll be outpaced quickly. Reigning Olympic Champ Adelina Sotnikova is not on the GP roster. Last year, she did not receive an assignment initially, but was added later to Rostelecom Cup. There is no such spot available this year. I’m guessing she’s done, though I’ve seen no official confirmation of that. Notably INcluded: I was a bit surprised to see Alena Leonova’s name on the women's roster (twice!). It was a rocky year last year that showcased little promise for her career. I have a feeling if there were more Russian juniors eligible to come up to seniors, her name may not have been on the list. Sui/Han are assigned to Skate America, despite Sui having a major foot surgery shortly after Worlds. I certainly *want* to see them that early in the season, but I doubt if they’ll have time to be fully healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me if they withdraw and just compete at their home event--but--it also wouldn’t surprise me if they didn’t, considering how long she reportedly competed while injured. Wishing my favorite pair girl a healthy recovery! I have to say, I thought Sergei Vornov would retire. But alas, I will see him at Skate America : ) Major Matchups: Ashley V. Gracie, Season 4, starts earlier than expected, as both will compete at Skate America. While Russia and Japan often have their two biggest skaters compete at their host events, the U.S. has shied away from it in recent years. This was *the* big storyline of the announcement, and this will be one of the most anticipated events of the whole series. Fans at Skate Canada will get to see Patrick Chan and Yuzuru Hanyu head-to-head again this year at Skate Canada. Both are looking for a comeback, but it will be interesting to see where each man’s preparation is at that early in the year. Now in their second year together, I am excited to see Savchenko/Massot go against Stolbova/Klimov at Rostelecom as it would be huge for the Germans to continue to beat a team like that. Most of the top pairs have fairly uncontested events, but Duhamel/Radford vs. Stolbova/Klimov could be interesting at NHK. Most exciting at NHK, though, will be Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir’s matchup against two-time World Champions Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron. Now that they are training mates, this will be billed as a clash of the titans as one of the top teams from pre-2014 takes on the king and queen of post-2014. Snubs: I thought Castelli/Tran deserved a second assignment, though I’m hoping they get the Skate America TBD placement. Also in pairs at Skate America, I’m surprised Kayne/OShea got the event over a higher ranked Scimeca/Knierim. The path to the Final for either team is dubious, but Scimeca/Knierim ended up with much harder events as a result. Not surprising, but telling, is that Weaver/Poje lost the Skate Canada placement to Virtue/Moir. Chock/Bates not only lost Skate America to the Shibutanis but they have to compete at back-to-back events early in the series (Skate Canada and Rostelecom). Javier Fernandez also has to compete back-to-back, which just surprises me that they’d set it up that way- exhausting! That’s all I will comment on for now, so look for more in depth posts from each discipline later next week. 2016-17 season, here we come! |
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