Part two! This dance field was stacked; along with the French, these top four are possibly the last warm up group at Worlds, so this was a nice chance for everyone to stack themselves against each other #bloodbath. Virtue and Moir continued their dominant comeback season with another win. Though their performances never seem to be 100 percent clean, the message from the judges is clear. To me, it’s the short dance that wins them events; it’s probably my favorite short dance of the season. I’ve never had really strong feelings about Tessa and Scott either way, but there’s not another team in the world that could pull off that short dance they way they do IMO. There’s still some bobbles to clean up, but apparently the judges just ignore them when they do (ex. free dance). I’m not seeing much standing in their way of winning the World title this year. Congrats to the Shibs on skating SO WELL here. Their free dance was the best performance this season, and they’ve really continued to hold their spot over Chock and Bates internationally this year. The short dance is actually true hip hop and so well thought out- it’s a close runner up to the Canadians for me. While the free dance certainly isn’t in your face, there’s a quiet elegance to it that is really effective when you just slow down and pay attention. Maia and Alex manage to be incredibly consistent and their twizzles are always the most synchronized of all the teams. While I don’t see them winning a World title this year, holding strong to stand on the podium for a second consecutive year would be a huge win for them. Chock and Bates did what they needed to do with their performance here and this was probably the result most were expecting. While I am relieved they are trying new things with their programs/choreography this year, I can’t back “Bad to the Bone” as a good choice for them. I’m hoping this year was their year to really *experiment* and they’ll tone it down next year. Also, I like the black free dance costume ! I was really happy to see Madi and Zach finish in fourth here. Though it was close, I *think* this is the first time they have placed above Weaver/Poje in an international event ( Madi and Zach did make it to the GPF this year while WeaPo did not), which is a good step for them. I know that they want to keep moving up the international ranks, but they have had some errors this year and that short dance isn’t doing them any favors. I’m hoping they can finish above the Russians in Helsinki . *fingers crossed* It was hard to watch Paul and Piper’s reaction to their short dance score after her fall, but they came back in the free dance, with a score that was literally only 0.01 behind Weaver/Poje. I think the programs they’ve chosen this year are great for them and their season best score is actually higher than Kaitlyn and Andrew’s. Worlds could be very interesting for this team if they can come out strong with two clean skates. Hopefully I'll get the other recaps out soon. . Men and ladies to come!
0 Comments
OHMYGOD THANK GOD SUI AND HAN ARE BACK! That is all that I have to say about this event. Done. (Not really, obviously or there wouldn't be any more words after this.) But if you want my #hottakes on the event, that would be it. If there's anything I'm sad about regarding the return of the World silver medallists, I'm distraught that we will not be able to see those programs for a full season. Lori Nichol's choreography isn't always my favorite, but she legitimately hit it out of the park with Sui/Han two seasons in a row. Hands down, those are the two best programs in the pairs field. It is incredible that they were able to make such a strong return after such a serious injury and I know many fans are glad to see their artistic abilities back on the ice. They weren't perfect here, but their gold medal was a big statement before Worlds. Duhamel/Radford's event went kind of like their season as a whole- a bit rocky. They rely on the consistency of their technical elements for their points, and their programs fall flat when they're not clean. Overall, there is just something very off for me about their packaging this year. Neither program really feels like it suits them. They were able to pull off their second World title after a similarly competed season last year, so they certainly aren't out of the game, but their main competitors have been improving and came out with really strong programs this year. Competition will be tight at Worlds for sure. Luba and Dylan really surprised here for the bronze medal. Their look on the ice is really gorgeous and they were able to remain fairly consistent at this event. She, of course, is gorgeous and hits stunning positions. They looked really happy with this medal and it was a huge international placement for them. They will head to worlds where hopefully they can build on this good finish. After their silver medal at the GPF, Yu/Zhang falling to fourth here is a bit of a disappointment. Yu is incredibly elegant on the ice and they do have great pair elements, but there is an understandable lack of connection between the two of them on the ice that really shows. They will be strong contenders at worlds, but may need to rely on other's mistakes for the podium. I was so happy to see Peng/Jin end their season on a really strong note here. Aside from a random spin fall in the short, they skated a clean event. (OMG landing things!) They looked so happy with their scores, and I am just happy that they look happy. Three Olympic spots shouldn't be a problem for the Chinese pairs, and I am excited to hopefully see this team there with more time under their belt. Honestly, kudos to Scimeca/Knierim on the highest finish of the U.S. pairs here. While U.S. pairs as a whole are admittedly inconsistent, these two are the only ones to have made an impact on the international level. Sending them here and to Worlds looks to be the right choice so far, so good for them for carrying their weight, so to speak. As far as the programs go, the short is stronger than the free but I think they were both solid choices for them. I think I actually saw Chris emote once a few times in that free ; ) If their season was longer, I would say change his shirt in the free, but with only one more event to go, probably not worth it. You could tell that this was their first event, but they have a solid footing for Worlds. Thanks for reading! Now if you don't mind me, I'll probably be getting misty eyed over Sui/Han's free skate now. #SobbingforSui More recaps to come! Though Four Continents can sometimes be so-so in terms of competitors, this year’s event is actually packed with World medal contenders in mens and dance, two big returns in pairs and a ladies field with North American women looking to make a statement. I am genuinely really excited about this event! See my predictions below. Links: ISU event page IN Streaming Schedule Practice Video PAIRS: While the men at Four Continents are hosting #quadfest, we will be seeing three quad attempts in pairs as well. Duhamel/Radford will try a throw quad salchow and both Yu/Zhang and Sui/Han will be trying a quad twist. To say that I am excited about Sui/Han’s return is a vast understatement. The quality of their line and choreography with their explosive technical elements is a combination that is hard to find in pair teams. Although I’ve only seen practice videos, Sui/Han’s programs this year are STUNNING and already have so much potential. Because of the uncertainty of the status of Sui/Han’s recovery from injury, I’ll go with the safe pick of Duhamel/Radford to win the title here. Though they lost a little practice because Meagan’s skates were lost in transit, they have toned down their program’s technical content, which should put them in a comfortable spot to skate clean. Sui/Han will be my pick for silver; a good showing here can set them up for the World podium. Their teammates Yu/Zhang are my pick for third. For fourth, I’ll pick the third Chinese team of Peng/Jin. I hope Scimeca/Knierim can have a solid start to their competitive season for fifth, followed by Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch in sixth. Though Four Continents can sometimes be so-so in terms of competitors, this year’s event is actually packed with World medal contenders in mens and dance, two big returns in pairs and a ladies field with North American women looking to make a statement. I am genuinely really excited about this event! See my predictions below. Links: ISU event page IN Streaming Schedule Practice Video LADIES: Numbers-wise, Kaetlyn Osmond is the clear favorite after the withdrawal of Satoko Miyahara. The only lady in this field to break 200 total points this year, the strength of her short programs have lead her to a breakthrough season after injury. Her free skates, though, have been messy, including her last outing at Canadians. Those mistakes can leave the door open. My dark horse pick for the gold medal is actually Mirai Nagasu, coming off a rough Nationals free skate of her own. I think Nationals will give her the motivation to skate well here and we may see finally see the debut of that 3A in competition. Osmond will have to make mistakes and Nagasu will have to skate perfectly for Mirai to win, but that’s my gut instinct. Bronze is 100 percent a toss up as most of these ladies have been extremely inconsistent. My not--too-confident pick is on Wakaba Higuchi; I love the quality of her skating and she’s a brilliant performer if she can pull the jumps together. Unfortunately, I don’t see two clean skates coming out of Karen Chen or Mariah Bell. As much as I want to be wrong about that (for the sake of our Olympic spots), my confidence in their consistency is low. They are in a tough spot coming off Nationals. Gabrielle Daleman also has brilliant potential, but her big jumps can get away from her. I’m not at all confident about these picks, but I will say Chen, Bell, Daleman for 4th-6th. Your guess is as good as mine : ) I’ll be keeping my eyes on Osmond’s consistency as she heads to Worlds with the possibility of good skates here setting her up for a World medal, as well as the U.S. ladies on the World team. It’s hard not to think that Bell and Chen need good skates here to have a prayer at three U.S. ladies Olympic spots. *PRAYS* Though Four Continents can sometimes be so-so in terms of competitors, this year’s event is actually packed with World medal contenders in mens and dance, two big returns in pairs and a ladies field with North American women looking to make a statement. I am genuinely really excited about this event! See my predictions below. Links: ISU event page IN Streaming Schedule Practice Video DANCE: Truly, this event’s big names all come from two countries- Canada and the U.S. The national fields in those countries are so highly competitive that this event is as much about how you fare against your compatriots as how you fare against the field as a whole. Each country’s respective national champions are favorites for the top two spots. Fueled by the best short dances of the season (IMO), Virtue/Moir and the Shibutanis are my picks to finish 1-2. Chock/Bates’ scores have climbed over the course of the season, but their inconsistency and cleanliness isn’t quite where the Shibutanis are at yet. They’re still a solid pick for third, and silver certainly isn’t out of reach. The battle for 4th-6th is going to be fun to watch. Both Hubbell/Donohue and Gilles/Poirier have been trying to move up in the standings domestically but each finished third at nationals. Weaver/Poje have been under huge changes this year to put them back on the World podum. After a fall in their free dance, I am picking Hubbell/Donohue to come back with vengeance for a somewhat surprising fourth place. Weaver/Poje will again assert themselves as Canada’s #2 team and finish fifth, followed by Gilles/Poirier in sixth. The politics of this discipline make it really tough to move up the ranks, but as always dance scores are too close for any of the teams to make even the slightest mistake. #DRAMA Though Four Continents can sometimes be so-so in terms of competitors, this year’s event is actually packed with World medal contenders in mens and dance, two big returns in pairs and a ladies field with North American women looking to make a statement. I am genuinely really excited about this event! See my predictions below. Links: ISU event page IN Streaming Schedule Practice Videos MEN: Brace yourselves, folks. According to the planned content sheets, about 60 quads are going to be attempted in this men’s event, with the top contenders doing four or five in their free skates alone. Simultaneously exciting and terrifying, #quadfest could make this event either absolutely brilliant or a complete mess. I am anticipating at least one performance of brilliance from Hanyu to win the gold medal. Unlike years past, I feel like he’s pacing himself to peak later in the season. After losing to Javier at Worlds two years in a row, I think he’s on plan to win a World title this year. A win here will set him up for Finland. After breaking through to a silver medal performance at the GPF, the international judging panel is likely to throw more points at Nathan Chen’s PCS. Nathan will solidify himself as a major Worlds podium contender with a silver medal here. Because he likes to make us #LOCO, Shoma Uno is adding quads to his free skate. Shoma has a more solid set of components than some in this field, so I see him skating well to earn the bronze medal. I think Patrick Chan will finish a close fourth, followed by Boyang Jin. Jin is also adding a quad to his free skate, because you can’t be the only guy at the party without five quads, right? Though I enjoy his programs, the judges will rank his components low comparatively. For Jason Brown, a solid sixth place finish would inspire some confidence before Worlds. Three Olympic spots is tentatively realistic for the U.S. men, but the health of Jason at that event is critical. He doesn't need to blow the roof off here, just demonstrate a nice pace in his training and healing heading to Worlds More previews to come! Chen Delivers, Big Task Ahead Karen Chen has always shown that she’s capable of being the full package - high jumps, beautiful spins and spirals, and good musical interpretation. But she’s not consistently delivered in competition as she navigated boot problems and injuries. NO ONE was talking about her for the title, but she showed up in Kansas City with the two best skates of her career. For me, it was her gorgeous short program where she really shined. In the free, many have acknowledged that her 3T on the end of the combo was under rotated (not called) and I think that her score was high overall. To her credit, Karen delivered under pressure in the free, which frankly, I wasn't sure she'd be able to do. Let’s hope this is turning point for her and that she can build confidence for the rest of the season. Eyes will be on her as she heads to Four Continents to see if she can remain consistent and she will be tasked with a top 8-10 finish at Worlds to give the U.S. a chance at three Olympic spots. (see more on that below). Wagner Sets Up for Worlds Preparations Ashley Wagner should be happy with her Nationals performances; she avoided major mistakes and delivered two technically solid performances that have her on a good pace to peak at Worlds. Ashley is the skater who engages you in her performance from start to finish and she created the moment of the free skate for me. The judges could’ve given her the title based on PCS, and to be honest, I’m surprised they didn’t. She will head to Helsinki as the U.S.’s leading lady and she's in a good position to skate well there. The performance of Chen’s career and the resurgence of Mirai Nagasu again drew attention to the weakness of Ashley’s spins and footwork. Much like the rise of Gracie Gold’s career in the last Olympiad forced Ashley to commit to consistently compete with the triple- triple, the rise of these skaters may force her to commit to achieving the level 4s she capable of in those areas. Gracie’s Season Ends, So Does Relationship With Carroll While many were encouraged by Gracie Gold’s pre-event teleconference, she didn’t deliver in Kansas City, skating far below what she is capable of. Had she finished in fourth, I could’ve seen a scenario where she was placed on the World team, but frankly she looks like she needs a long break to decide if- and how- she wants to continue her career. Perhaps more disheartening than her skating here was the drama that ensued between her and Frank Carroll. While the partnership was clearly no longer a good fit, it was yet another situation Gold was forced to address in the public forum. With more experienced reporters like Christine Brennan and Phil Hersh covering the sport as we approach the Olympic year, there was no shying away from media scrutiny and Gold left Missouri on a low note, on and off the ice. Three Olympic Spots May Be Out of the Question At the beginning of the season, I wouldn’t have imagined we’d have a better chance at three men’s Olympic spots than ladies, but--- here we are. While Wagner can give you a solid 3rd-6th place finish, expecting a top ten placement from Karen Chen or Mariah Bell isn’t going to be easy. Considering the strength of the Canadian (2), Japanese(3) and Russian (3) teams alone (plus Wagner and Carolina Kostner), you’re looking at 11 experienced competitors already. The thought of watching 2018 Nats with so many competitors and only two spots honestly gives me anxiety. Looking to Four Continents I think it was a good decision for Ashley to pass on Four Continents, as she tends to skater better with more preparation time between events. There's not much to gain at this event for Wagner unless she skates lights out IMO. It *is* good opportunity for Mirai Nagasu to rebound from her free skate and to potentially gain some ISU ranking points that will be very important for next year's Grand Prix assignments. It's hard to not think that Karen and Mariah need a really good skate at Four Continents before Worlds to have any hope for three spots. I don't envy the position they're in. I am still catching up on some of the programs I missed live, but will hope to post further recaps later. Skating is already continuing this week with Europeans! Ah! I've put this off to the last possible second, but there's no avoiding it any longer as the event gets underway tomorrow : ) Pairs: Okay, so this pick is based on absolutely no data point whatsoever. It's just a guess/stab in the dark. Overall, I say its gonna be a messy event, with none of the top teams skating well. I will pick Kayne/OShea to have some Nationals magic again and skate the most consistently for their second title, followed by Castelli/Tran, who will surprise and make it on their first world team. Denney/Frazier will finish third, with Cain/LeDuc having a fantastic debut for fourth. Ladies: I'm betting on Ashley Wagner to be the most consistent of the event to win her fourth title. I think she has the motivation to win and and that her free skate will be her strength. I feel like something big is coming for Mirai Nagasu. While her triple axel could play spoiler here, I'll count on consistent skates to put her in second place and on the World team. While I think this event will be a step in the right direction for Gracie Gold, I'm thinking there will still be doubt in her mind and therefore, some mistakes to finish a close third. I am a Mariah Bell fan and hoping she can pull off some Skate America magic to earn pewter. This is an important event for her; she needs to follow through on that bronze from the fall. Dance: I don't see anything drastic happening here. Shibutanis for gold, Chock/Bates silver and Hubbell/Donohue third. Hawayek/Baker will race back to their fourth place standing with their gorgeous free dance. Men: Well, Nathan Chen is going to win, haha. And then after that? I am really pulling for Jason Brown here for second. I think we need him for the World team. Vincent Zhou will have a great event and finish in a close third. Max Aaron will impress with his short, but not be able to follow it up in the free and end up in fourth. Happy watching and tweeting! I'll be in Kansas City for the ladies free on Saturday and following all the other events live. Here's to a good event ; ) Ohmygod U.S. Nationals are THIS WEEK! #anxiety With some major players out with injuries and all eyes looking towards 2018, what we see this year is skaters setting themselves up for the Olympic year. More important than what happens in Kansas City this week is what happens at Worlds this year or what I like to call "White Knuckling Olympic Spots". Here is a look at the storylines I will be keeping my eye on in Kansas City: (See Part One here) 3. How high will Nathan Chen’s scores get? Anyone that tells you this title isn’t Nathan Chen’s to lose is lying. His improved components combined with his 10,000 quads have him securely in the frontrunner position in Kansas City. If you remember back to last year, Nathan’s lowballed scores were at the center of the controversial men’s result. Now, with the reigning champion out, the 2015 champ recovering from an injury and a senior Grand Prix Final medal under his belt, the judges have free reign to give Nathan with (deserved) points and I expect crazy high scores. With one of the World team spots presumably taken by #Slaythan, it could be a tight race for the silver medal. Jason Brown is dealing with an injury that has caused him to miss significant training time. Healthy, Jason is an easy pick for second (with the incredible quality of his programs) but his injury leaves the door open. Max Aaron is coming to Nationals with a new short program that seems more suited to his style. He could ride that momentum and quad or two to another Worlds birth. I’m going to be watching those two skaters scores for some *interesting* marks. While I love Grant Hochstein and Ross Miner’s skating, they haven’t been skating the best. I’m very excited to see what Vincent Zhou can bring to the table here. 4. Can anyone shake up the dance placements? It’s fairly predictable that the U.S.’s top three internationally ranked teams will be the three teams on top of the podium this week. The Shibutanis come off of two wins on the Grand Prix, a GPF bronze and I’m certain hungry to keep their national title. These two are so consistent and technically precise, they come in as the favorites. Madison Chock/Evan Bates are coming off a disappointing Grand Prix Final, where mistakes left them in last place, behind not only the Shibs but Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue as well. While I think Hubbell/Donohue have the best free dance of the event, their hip-hop short is a liability in my opinion. Can Madi and Zach pull an upset here? Possible. But clean skates from Chock/Bates make a big difference. Last year, Anastasia Cannuscio/Colin McManus pulled an upset, winning the pewter medal over Kaitlyn Hayawek/Jean Luc Baker. This season, however, Hawayek/Baker have shown much improvement and their free dance is absolutely gorgeous. In the Grand Prix, they averaged roughly 20 points higher than Cannuscio/McManus and beat them at NHK. All signs point to Kaitlyn and Jean Luc grabbing their fourth place U.S. ranking back. I am also looking forward to Progrebinsky/Benoit skating at the senior level this year. I'll be back on Wednesday with some predictions, then I'm off to enjoy the weekend in Kansas City! I'll be live in the arena for the ladies free, so check me out on Twitter if you want updates! So, that GPF review never happened! I could totally leave a hundred excuses here as to why, but I will spare us both the time and just move on : ) U.S. Nationals is happening this week (ohmygod) so I'll hopefully shake the rust off and get back to it! Happy new year!
|
About the Blog:Reviews, predictions and opinions in the magical, sparkly and dramatic field of figure skating. Archives
November 2017
Categories |