Usually, the dance event is the least unpredictable of the disciplines- the scores tend to fluctuate less than the other events and the politics/rankings of skaters is much more constant. For most placements in the top five in St. Paul, that should still hold true. However, a bit of drama has developed over the Grand Prix season as Maia and Alex Shibutani have made stunning steps forward in their skating. The biggest question is- will that be enough to best past champions Madison Chock and Evan Bates, and (perhaps harder to overcome) the incredibly tough national politics of ice dance?
Chock and Bates have had a bit of a bumpy ride so far this season, going through three short dances before settling into their current one just before Skate America. However, they easily won that event, and then placed second at Cup of China and at the Grand Prix Final. None of their performances this season have been perfect, bobbles here and there, and the overall flow of the programs seems disjointed, understandably due to the major changes they went through at the beginning of the season. Despite a mistake on their twizzles at the Final, Chock and Bates still scored high on that element, perhaps evidence that they still firmly hold the U.S.’s number one dance spot internationally. The Shibs come to Nationals with the best chance they’ve ever had of winning a national title. Five-time U.S. medallists, the Shibs have three silvers (including last year) and two bronzes to their credit. Their “Coldplay” free skate has brought every audience to their feet this season, and given a new, fresh energy to their skating. You can’t tell me that the Shibs’ twizzles are not one of the very best in the world, either. Many fans (me included) feel that the Shibs are often underscored to keep them under the umbrella of the “U.S. Number 2” and those politics are hard to overcome. To force the judges to give them their due, it will take a performance of a lifetime to prove that they cannot be ignored any longer. I, for one, cannot wait to be in the arena for that free dance. Also having a bit of a breakthrough this season, Madison Hubbell and Zachary Donahue come to St. Paul after attending their first Grand Prix Final. Competing there was a huge step for them, although they did not skate perfectly there. A coaching change and a beautiful short program have given new momentum to this team, and they should solidly grab the bronze medal for another trip to the World Championships. They’ve had a few mistakes this season, but I hope they’ve cleaned those up since the Final and that they skate very well here. Kaitlyn Hawayek and Jean Luc-Baker have had some road bumps in the preseason- a fall at a Challenger event, and having to withdraw from their second Grand Prix assignment due to illness. This team has a ton of potential, but they are most likely out of the non-pewter medal race. They’ve had more time to rest, recuperate, and train than the top three teams who competed at the Final, so I hope to see them skating with confidence and energy this week. At Skate America, I was really impressed with Anastasia Cannuscio and Colin McManus. They posted very solid scores and were able to compete twice on the senior Grand Prix, which was a great opportunity for them. I expect them to be a solid again in St. Paul "Predictions": Numbers wise, third through fifth is somewhat of an easy guess, with Hubbell/Donahue, Hawayek/Baker and Cannuscio and McManus. Now for the top two….I fully expect a cleaner set of performances from Chock and Bates in St. Paul, as they have had more time with their programs. While I like them as a team, I do not think that their content is as exciting or impactful as the Shibs. We’ve seen some mistakes from Chock/Bates this season, and I think that’s what it will take to propel the Shibs to gold, politically. On the NBC preview show, Tara said perhaps the most telling thing of all while talking about the Shibutani’s free dance- “The Shibutani’s will definitely be the people’s favorite in St. Paul”. The people, not the judges. I think I’ve made my point. My heart says the Shibs, and my head says Chock and Bates, so that’s about as big of a prediction as I can make : )
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November 2017
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