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Initially, I was very interested by this event because it would be the first time we would see returning Olympic Champion Adelina Sotnikova compete. Now that she's withdrawn from injury, the door is wide open for Anna Pogorilaya to secure her spot in the final and the rest of the medals are really up for grabs!
GOLD- Anna Pogorilaya should easily walk away with this gold medal. Based on the scores already posted this season, she leads the rest of the field by over 20 points. Her performance here would clinch the second spot in the Grand Prix final by a Russian (joined by Elizaveta Tuktamysheva). SILVER- Japan's Rika Hongo posted a wonderful score at Skate Canada that was good enough for fifth place. Hopefully she can continue her progress this season to skate clean and grab a Grand Prix silver. She's out of the running for the Final, but this performance could set her up well as she approaches an interesting Japan National Championships. BRONZE- Another fifth-place finisher in the Grand Prix, So Youn Park has a huge opportunity here to continue her strong start at Skate America by winning a medal here. I like her programs this year, and I look for her to take the bronze medal. She will not qualify for the Final either, but this is a chance for her to gain some international exposure. Other contenders- Mirai Nagasu will certainly be looking for redemption after her poor start at Skate America. I didn't pick her for the podium simply because her two performances this season have fallen a 11+ points behind Hongo and Park, but I think she'll be hungry for an improved performance here to set her up well for Nationals. Only one word can describe this week's results for me: OUCH. I can't say much more about them, because, really- they were THAT bad. I got 3/12 right and was tied for 298th in the rankings. OUCH. Moving on.....
It was announced this week that returning Olympic Champion Adelina Sotnikova would not compete in her assigned Grand Prix events due to an ankle injury. In my post about the Final picture after Skate Canada, I stated that my predictions hinged heavily on Sotnikova's performance. With her WD, the picture for the Grand Prix final looks a lot different.
My predictions: ROSTELCOM CUP TROPHY BOMPBARD NHK TROPHY Anna Pogorilaya Elena Radionova Gracie Gold Mirai Nagasu Julia Lipnitskya Satoko Miyahara Rika Hongo Ashley Wagner Polina Edmunds That would make a final of: Pogorilaya (30 points); Radionova (30 points); Tuktamysheva (28 points); Lipnitskya (26 points); Gracie Gold (26 points) and Satoko Miyahara/Ashley Wagner (24 points) The biggest gain here goes to Gracie Gold; without Sotnikova at NHK Trophy, she should be the clear favorite to win. Without much competition, she should win gold, but she's had a lot of trouble performing under pressure lately. Should she make it to the Final, I think it will be interesting to test her "I'm in the running for the best in the world" theory head-to-head against four of the Russians. I also am interested to see her skate next to Polina Edmunds as we get ready for their matchup at Nationals. Polina would easily have won a medal at Cup of China had she skated cleanly in the short. I look for her to not make that mistake again and get on the podium at NHK. Ashley Wagner will need a strong skate at Trophy Bompard. She will not be a favorite to win, with the Russian competition at that event, but she needs to stay on her feet, get that bronze medal and garner a good number of points to win that last spot in the Final over Miyahra. NHK will be a very interesting event... with Gold, Miyahara, and Kanako Murakami in the hunt for a Final spot with a win or a medal. The top prize went to the comeback kid- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. She had her second strong short program of the Grand Prix circuit and much improved her long program, with six clean triples and the highest total score of the season. I have to admire her tenacity and the spirit she brings to her music this year. Winning this event must mean so much to her and should definitely solidify her spot in the Grand Prix final. I'm very interested to see her in the Final against the other Russian ladies.
Julia Lipnitskya was my pick for the Cup of China gold medallist. She looked like she would easily win after a clean short program that left her on top of the field. However, she shocked us all with a disastrous long program, with a fall and many singled jumps. She reportedly called it the "worst skate of her life" and didn't show up to the award ceremony. She claimed she didn't know when it was, but I suspect otherwise. I genuinely enjoy Julia's skating and I think her programs could serve her well this season. She's a fighter, so I can't see her making mistakes like this again. I expect her to come back strong in her next event and her silver medal here definitely keeps her in the game for the Final. Skating to two Phantom of the Opera selections (ugh), Kanako Murakami won the bronze medal. I actually enjoyed her short program performance to Think of Me but was less enthused about her long program, where she plays the Phantom. She has some nice moments, but lacks the fluidity and consistency to really keep her on top in a more competitive field. Her battle with Satoko Miyahara for the Japan National title will be interesting to watch, and we get a sneak peek of that at the NHK Trophy in three weeks. She'd be an outside shot for a spot at the Final, but I don't think that's all too probable. Other news off the podium- American Polina Edmunds rebounded to win fourth place after a costly mistake on her combination in the short program. She said in her blog that she was happy with her performance, but not her "marks or placement" because "she was the only one to skate a clean performance with the highest difficulty of elements". WOAH, there Polina, those are big words for your little britches. I liked the fire in her short program, but frankly- her long program was downright boring aside from the jumps. I think the placement was fair for her performance. I'm interested to see how she stacks up against Gracie Gold at the NHK Trophy. I'm really liking the athletic style of fifth place finisher Gabrielle Daleman from Canada. She needs polish but I love the attack of her skating and truly enjoyed her two programs. So... here we are back for another week of fantasy picks! I can't say that I feel all that confident about my picks again this week. I think the A picks were all fairly easy, but as for the rest... we will have to see. Crossing my fingers! I'll make sure to post my progress so you can see how I did.
Time to gear up for our third event in the Grand Prix circuit!
GOLD- This week, I am highly anticipating the competitive return of Julia Lipnitskya. The 2014 World silver medallist is a favorite to jump to the top of the podium this season, and that all starts here. I did see a video of her short program and I really liked the concept. Her incredible spins and music interpretations always gain high marks. She struggled with consistency at the end of last season, but I look for her to take the top spot this week. SILVER- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva may have run out of steam in her long program at Skate America, but after some competitive rest, I look for her to have another strong showing here. Her programs suit her well and her jumps have the technical difficultly to land on the second step of the podium. BRONZE- It will be very interesting to see what the Grand Prix judges do with Polina Edmunds. She has the technical skills to be in the medal mix, but very much lacking the poise and presentation as the other top ladies. She had a strong showing at her pre-season competitions and I think two clean programs will get her her first Grand Prix medal - a bronze. Other Challengers: Japan's Kanako Murakami and Christina Gao from the USA are two names that should round out the top five, should they stay clean and consistent. With two events done in the 2014 Grand Prix, I can't help but look ahead at the lineups for the remaining events and speculate about where that will leave the wold's best ladies in terms of a spot in the Grand Prix final. (Of course many things can change; I will update on the status of the final after each event.) Here's my hunch about the rest of the events:
Those results would put Radionova (30 points), Tuktamysheva (26 points), Lipnitskya (28 points), Pogorilaya (30 points), and Sotnikova( 28 points) in the Final, with one spot left--- for Wagner or Gold, tied at 24 points.
When a tie occurs in the GP circuit, the total amount of points a skater accumulated in both of their GP events is used to break the tie. Currently, Ashley has a 6.62 point advantage. However, Gracie lost 14+ points at Skate America, due in part to errors that probably won't occur again (a combination spin and an entire jumping pass being eliminated due to too many double toes). Wagner will have to repeat or better her 186.00 from Skate Canada to stay in the race and hope Gracie makes some technical mistakes at NHK. Most of this speculation hinges on the performance of returning Sochi gold medallist Adelina Sotnikova. She is such a question mark this season, having never won an international competition before the Olympics and she hasn't competed since. If Adelina struggles at NHK, Gracie could win the gold medal and win a spot in the final. Many are expecting the Wagner-Gold showdown to come in January at the US Championships, but it very well could come sooner than that. For Ashley Wagner, Skate Canada couldn't have been more important to setting the tone of her season. After a rough Nationals and Olympics last year and her decision to continue skating, she needed to gain some momentum here to carry her through the rest of this post-Olympic season. Watching the NBC replay of the ladies free skate, one didn't have to be all that perceptive to gather that the infamous Tara and Johnny weren't all that impressed with Ashley's free skate. They stayed mostly silent through her performance, one positive comment coming from Johnny that she looked "stunning" and a patronizing pat on the head from Lipinski when she said she admired Ashley's "passion for the sport". Mostly, I noted a distinct lack of praise for her PCS and connection to her music (which they heavily criticized Miyahara, Pogorilaya, and Hicks for not having). For Ashley, though, this performance was a huge step in the right direction, and here's why: Realistically, the Grand Prix Circuit and World Championships this year will belong to the ladies of Russia, leaving the rest of the field to settle for what is left. At Skate Canada, Ashley adopted a less technically difficult free skate, leaning on her PCS and high grades of execution on less difficult elements to get her scores up. AND IT WORKED. Ashley was relaxed, comfortable and poised on the ice. Her technical elements are far from the top of the field, but there's time for that. What Ashley needed was confidence and a silver medal should do that. Looking ahead to her second Grand Prix event, she's skating at Trophee Eric Bompard against two ladies favored to be on the top of the world podium: Elena Radionova and Julia Lipnitskya. For Wagner, a clean skate and bronze medal will be the realistic goal for her performance in France. The rest of the field is weak, so its shouldn't be hard for her to get the bronze medal. Leaving the Grand Prix circuit with two podium finishes should be the realistic stepping stone for Ashley as she gears up for the oh-so-important Nationals in January. I agree that Ashley's free skate needs some additional technical goods; especially if she wants to get back on the podium at the US Nationals. The low difficulty-high quality approach will serve her well in the Grand Prix, but not against the likes (and triple triples) of Gracie Gold and Polina Edmunds. Nationals will be the time to add back a triple lutz and possibly a triple triple to her free skate. Skated clean, what she did at Skate Canada could get her ON the podium, but not a gold medal. And maybe this isn't her year to win back her national title, but standing on a step of the national podium and getting back to the World Championships is certainly what Ashley needs to get back in the game. It all begins with a step. And Skate Canada was certainly that for her. Meh.... this week was not as good to me as last week : ( My ladies picks were perfect again, but I only got 1 right in mens (Javi, how could you let me down?) and pairs. Thank goodness for bonus points- I managed to pick three of the winners.
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