With two events done in the 2014 Grand Prix, I can't help but look ahead at the lineups for the remaining events and speculate about where that will leave the wold's best ladies in terms of a spot in the Grand Prix final. (Of course many things can change; I will update on the status of the final after each event.)
Here's my hunch about the rest of the events:
Those results would put Radionova (30 points), Tuktamysheva (26 points), Lipnitskya (28 points), Pogorilaya (30 points), and Sotnikova( 28 points) in the Final, with one spot left--- for Wagner or Gold, tied at 24 points.
When a tie occurs in the GP circuit, the total amount of points a skater accumulated in both of their GP events is used to break the tie. Currently, Ashley has a 6.62 point advantage. However, Gracie lost 14+ points at Skate America, due in part to errors that probably won't occur again (a combination spin and an entire jumping pass being eliminated due to too many double toes). Wagner will have to repeat or better her 186.00 from Skate Canada to stay in the race and hope Gracie makes some technical mistakes at NHK.
Most of this speculation hinges on the performance of returning Sochi gold medallist Adelina Sotnikova. She is such a question mark this season, having never won an international competition before the Olympics and she hasn't competed since. If Adelina struggles at NHK, Gracie could win the gold medal and win a spot in the final.
Many are expecting the Wagner-Gold showdown to come in January at the US Championships, but it very well could come sooner than that.
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