After what we saw in the short, I have no idea what to expect here in the long.
First place, in my opinion, is already Elizaveta's. With an eight point lead, and her fantastic performance in the short, it would truly take an act of God to take her off the top step of the podium. Unless she makes a mistake, which would be unusual for her, Elena should also be safe in her silver medal. I don't think the rest of the field has enough to overtake her if she's clean. Here's a breakdown for the rest of the top six: From 2nd From 3rd From 4th From 5th 3. Satoko Miyahara 2.49 ----- ----- ----- 4. Kanako Murakami 4.03 1.54 ----- ----- 5. Rika Hongo 7.34 4.85 3.31 ----- 6. Zijun Li 7.68 5.19 3.65 0.34 For the next three: From 3rd From 4th From 5th From 6th 7. Polina Edmunds 5.31 3.77 0.46 0.08 8. Gracie Gold 6.29 4.75 1.44 1.10 9. Anna Pogorilaya 6.52 4.98 1.67 1.33 Now just for fun- I added each lady's ISU season best LP score to their current standing, and you end up with this: 1. Tuktamysheva, 2.Radionova, 3.Miyahara, 4.Wagner, 5.Pogorilaya, 6.Edmunds 7.Gold, 8. Hongo, 9Li, 10.Murakami, 11.Chartrand Those numbers don't predict anything, but it does illustrate that a lot could change below the top two. Now, some of the ladies have a better chance at performing above their best and some seem likely to perform below it, but it's an interesting piece of data to look at. Here's the skate order. All 3 Americans will skate with Pogorilaya and Chartrand in the second to last group. I'm hoping skating first and third in the group will be more comfortable positions for Gold and Wagner than they had in the short. It would be really great for the Americans to move up in the standings enough to keep 3 spots for the Worlds next year, which will take place on home ice in Boston. To do that, the top 2 finishers have to have a combined placement of 13 or less- very doable if they skate their best. Mostly, I hope the pressure will be off Gold and Wagner so that they can skate to their potential. In the last group, I don't think the skate order will affect the top two Russians. Miyahara struggled a bit at 4 Continents being in medal contention, so I hope she doesn't do that here. Murakami and Li performed above their bests in the short, so either that momentum will carry them to better performances or they may fall back into old ways. I think Hongo will stay steady-as-she-goes consistent. This is figure skating, and anything can happen. I am looking forward to relaxing through this long program and seeing how it all shakes out! See you all there at 10:30 Eastern. I will be live tweeting!
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November 2017
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