It's going to be a show to watch in Greensboro Saturday night as the best US ladies duke it out for medals in the free skate. I was truly impressed with the overall skating quality of the competition in the short, so fingers crossed we get a repeat of that in the free skate.
Here are the current standings of the top 6: 1. Ashley Wagner 72.04 2. Gracie Gold 67.02 (5.02 points from 1st) 3. Polina Edmunds 66.04 (6 points from 1st) (0.98 points from 2nd) 4. Mirai Nagasu 65.28 (6.76 pts from 1st) (1.74 pts from 2nd) (0.76 from 3rd) 5.Courtney Hicks 65.01 (7.08 pts from 1st) (2.01 pts from 2nd) (1.03 from 3rd) 6. Karen Chen 64.66 (7.28 from 1st) (2.36 from 2nd) (1.30 from 3rd) Click here to see the skate order for the free skate. We will see the top 4 back-to-back with Hicks, Wagner, Gold and Edmunds skating last ( in that order). Start order doesn't necessarily mean much... but Gold skating after Ashley sets up quite the drama: either Wagner falters and Gold has opportunity to clinch a win -- or -- Wagner delivers and then the pressure to compete will really be on Gold. Either way, you know Gracie will hear Ashley's score so I actually think Gold has the less enviable position, considering she can struggle under pressure. Wagner can throw out her program and then see if anyone can beat it...if she hits. And that's an IF, ladies and gents. NOW- I can't fail to mention that many were picking Edmunds to win Nationals this year. If Gracie and Ashley crumble, Edmunds has a huge opportunity in skating last. Disregarding the fact that all scores will be way inflated at a National free skate, here's a look at long program performance this season: Wagner and Gold's season averages in the free skate are separated by about two points (AW 122.60 and GG 120.79). Courtney Hicks, sitting in fifth (only 1.03 from third) has the next-highest average at 117.52, with Polina at 111.89 and Mirai at 107.95. See how interesting this competition is? First and Second: I think the top two will come down to a Gold-Wagner battle, as predicted. Ashley's lead is not unbeatable; she HAS to deliver a solidly clean performance to stay on top, but I really am feeling her confidence at this point and the free has been the stronger of her two programs this year. She is however, attempting more technical difficulty for Saturday's program that she ever has before, which is a huge risk. AND THEN if Wagner falters, the bigger question remains- can Gold deliver enough to overcome that 5 point lead? Bottom line: If Ashley makes 1 mistake, I think she'll be okay - but- more than that could bump her to silver after a clean performance from Gracie Gold. Third and Fourth: Hmmm... I'm a fan of Mirai's programs this season, but I don't think she has the technical goods to top a clean Polina Edmunds, simply because the judges seem to be holding Polina up when she hits technically. Hicks could certainly battle for bronze with those big jumps of hers, but her free program really doesn't suit her and I can't see it scoring huge PCS. Bottom line: A clean performance from Edmunds should get her the bronze. 3rd-5th place are incredibly close heading into the free, though, so a mistake by Edmunds easily would open the door for a clean Courtney Hicks. ANYTHING can happen in this sport, so I'm saying my prayers for my favorites and buckling up for what hopes to be a big night on Saturday!
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